Predictions for 2022+

Hello!

I wanted to record some thoughts I had on predictions for ths coming year, if only to provide a record to check against in the future.

Hope you enjoy and feel free to drop a comment with your thoughts!

#1. Intel announces a new ISA to compete with ARM

>30% - Not particularly likely in 2022 but more likely in 2023 and beyond

Apple is selling a TON of Macs with M1 processors and these processors are very fast. TheRegister writes

Arm's market share in PC chips was about eight per cent during Q3 this year, climbing steadily from seven per cent in Q2, and up from only two per cent in Q3 2020, before Arm-compatible M1 Macs went on sale.

Apple's ARM based processors use an ISA (Instruction Set Architecture) that is newer and better designed than the x86 one used by Intel and AMD. While switching ISAs is a huge undertaking, users of the x86 ISA have higher power consumption and larger silicon area to perform the same operations.

#2. Recognition for SAR-CoV-2 / COVID natural immunity

~50% - Somewhat likely

There are a number of studies and data sets that show clearly that past SARS-CoV-2 infection results in an immune response that reduces the chance of future infection and dramatically decreases the chance of complications from future infection. Ironically this mechanism is exactly the one being used by COVID vaccines (and vaccines in general).

However, in spite of what you might have learned in school, and many thousands of research papers on the human immune system, and the rational for having a vaccine in the first place, there is reluctance to come right out and say it.

Let's hope reason and data will prevail and in 2022 we'll see recognition of this biological fact both in regulations and in language used by what we hope are trusted sources like the CDC.

#3. Tesla releases FSD (full-self driving) across its fleet

>50% - Even considering Elon time, a 2022 release is likely

FSD has come a long way in 2021. Along with upgrades to software and the neural network that runs in the cars, there have been extensive improvements to how Tesla is training and has designed their ML networks. We've seen FSD beta being released for a number of owners, based upon their driving score as calculated by Tesla.

A self driving car is a huge challenge. I'm optimistic that in 2022 we'll see FSD features like door-to-door driving, and smooth human like behavior, become the norm and released across the Tesla fleet that has the hardware support to handle it.

Comments

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